Apollo Economist: AI Delivers 'Zero Financial Payoff' to Most Companies

The S&P 493 tells a different story

Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, focused on what he calls the S&P 493—the S&P 500 excluding Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla.

For these 493 companies, profit margins and revenue per worker appear flat, with no evidence that AI is improving productivity. Slok's note, reported by TechCrunch, concludes that "despite massive investments and widespread hype around artificial intelligence, the technology has delivered zero financial payoff to corporate America outside of tech."

The finding cuts against the dominant narrative that AI is already transforming business. While tech giants report AI-driven revenue and efficiency gains, the rest of the corporate world has little to show for its spending.

Why AI might not translate to profit

Slok is skeptical that non-tech companies are simply lagging behind. He argues it will be tough for corporate America to "turn increasingly cheap intelligence into higher revenue growth and higher profit margins."

His reasoning: "AI may be a great calculator, but in business, intelligence is mostly judgment." Slok adds that AI does not understand accountability, trust, culture, unwritten rules, ethical trade-offs, or fairness—all of which shape reputational risk and ultimately drive revenue growth and profit margins.

That view aligns with recent studies that have found AI has yet to deliver significant productivity gains. The gap between AI's promise and its measurable impact is widening, even as investment continues to soar.

The bigger picture: hype vs. hard numbers

Slok's analysis is the latest signal that the AI boom may be unevenly distributed.

Tech companies are pouring billions into AI infrastructure and seeing returns, but the broader economy isn't following suit. If Slok is right, the productivity revolution may be confined to a handful of firms—at least for now.

The debate matters for investors and executives alike. As AI spending continues to climb, the pressure to show tangible results will only grow. For now, the data suggests that for most companies, the payoff remains elusive.

What it means for you

If you're running a business outside the tech sector, Slok's analysis is a reality check. Before scaling AI investments, consider whether the technology addresses judgment-intensive tasks or simply automates calculations. The productivity gains may take longer to materialize than vendors promise.

For investors, the message is to watch margins and revenue per worker, not just AI spending. The S&P 493's flat numbers suggest that the AI trade may be more concentrated than it appears.

Slok's analysis throws cold water on the idea that AI is an immediate profit engine for all. While tech giants reap rewards, the rest of corporate America is still waiting. The gap between AI investment and tangible returns is a story to watch in the coming quarters.